Global stock market outlook in 2008

The global stock market in 2007 faces many problems, from the US sub-prime mortgage crisis to the oil price hike. It brings fear to investors all around the world. Many people worry that US economy is heading into recession. What will happen to the global stock market in 2008? Is it over for the US credit crisis?
The worst is yet to come. There will be plenty of asset write-downs in the first quarter of 2008. There will also possibility of rising inflation due to oil price and lower consumer spending in US. The consumer spending is a lagged variable. It will probably reach its bottom at the first six month of 2008. I think there will be a recovery in the next six if the Federal Reserve acts correctly. The Federal Reserve board of governors is inexperienced, according to BCA Research. Donald Kohn is the only one who has the experience with financial crises. The last Fed cut in December shows this inexperience. US market will certainly affect other stock market around the world. Emerging market led by BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) will still growing high in 2008.

Benazir Bhutto's affect stock

Most Asian markets fell partly due to the assassination of Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto and worries about the outlook for the U.S. economy. Bhutto’s death on Thursday, just ahead of Jan. 8 elections, sent shock waves through international markets on worries that global instability may follow. She was assassinated in an election-rally attack in Rawalpindi, threatening the stability of a nuclear-armed nation. At least 16 people died and more than 60 were injured in the gunfire-and-bomb attack on Bhutto's rally.
The killing might harm foreign investment in Pakistan. For the past couple of years, Pakistan stock market,Karachi is up 50 percent year-to-date. It also can affect other stock market, due to its security instability.

Stock Pick Guide

Stock Pick is the key of stock investing. With many stocks out there, we need to know which stock should we buy, and which stock we should sell. If you choose well, then you’ve reach glory, if you choose the wrong stock then might just say goodbye to your money. Stock pick is actually the key for success, and the guide for glory. Just follow and stick with your pick strategy, and you’ll reach your goal. But remember that there’s no guarantee that your pick strategy will be 100% accurate, because there’s a lot of factor which influence a company performance, and many of it is tangible like brand, employee competence, and human emotional. Many people use screener as a strategy to pick stock. There are many popular screener, like Graham screener for the value investing method. You can modify the screener to fit your character. If you are risk averse or risk taker, you can change the screener to increase the effectiveness. Other poeple uses software like Vector2000 Stock Systems or pitbull investor which gives advanced technical analysis and market forecasting for short term stock market trends, c/w trade recommendations, timing indicators, enhanced quotes / charts and MarketMeter. These software is made by expert which can make life easier. There are various stock pick strategy, which are:
• Fundamental analysis , buying stock with good financial fundamental.
• Technical Analysis , buying stock based on previous price data.
• Value Investing , buying stock which is undervalued.
• Growth Investing , buying stock with high growth.
• Income Investing , buying stock which give regular dividend.
• Penny Stock, low price stock.
Please remind that it is very crucial for you to choose your own stock pick style, not following other people style. If it’s good for them, it might not good for you. So know your characteristic, and the pick strategy characteristic.

मय पोर्टफोलियो screener

Here is my secret of choosing stock. This strategy is based on value investing.

First I open http://screen.yahoo.com/stocks.html

There I will find stock with these criteria:

-PEG 0 - 0.5

-Dividend 1%-20%


You probably get plenty of stock. So we will remove those stocks with this following criteria.

-Current asset lower than current liability

-High ROE(Equity return) larger than 20%

-High OPM(Operating margin) larger than 25%

-Low Debt/Equity lower than 30%

You will find those information by using this tool below (enter your stock code and click eQuote).

My stock pick guide website

I want to post to my blog. But I lost my account. So I made a new one. The website was build a month ago. www.stockpickguide.com I hope can can write regularly in this blog and share my knowledge and expereience.